FIRE WITH FIRE

How long will it take for the world community to come to a consensus on Iran? In the news today was continued posturing from members in the world community on the Iranian nuclear issue. It is very clear that there will be no consensus and in reality no sanctions will be taken against Iran in the near future.

The threat of turning off the oil to dissenting countries is such a big stick that even world community leaders are increasingly finding it difficult to take sides for fear of severe economic impact in their own economy. It has become an exercise in futility to restrain Iran.

As I watch the scenario, it seems clear to me that Iran will continue to operate outside the bounds of acceptable diplomatic activities, but that nothing will be able to stop them in their drive for nuclear weapons.

Posted by The Watcher at Monday, April 30, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I found this news report posted on Google News just one hour ago. For sure you should read this article if you are following news in the Middle East and on Iran.

Here is a synopsis, the "Cliff Notes" version. Iran is demanding all Middle Eastern countries to sign a pact saying that they will not participate in an American military endeavor against them.

"Iran itself demanded signed agreements from its Gulf neighbors that state that they would not participate or assist in any American war against Iran and had explicitly warned the countries of the Gulf."

What I found very interesting is that clearly this news is being widely heralded in the Middle East, but we Americans are in the dark. We are being insulated from some of the very real and dangerous actions that are transpiring in the Middle East by our own Press making a decision that these important pronouncements from Iran do not merit newsworthiness in America.

In fact if you do a review of the news right now, the only thing present on Reuters, API, The Washington Post, and the NY Times are articles about the Congress and Senate wrangling on Iraqi withdraw and the Taliban making a comeback in parts of Afghanistan. Where is the press on this important news from Iran?

The piece ends with this statement:

"We do not know but it seems that Iran will lose international support due to its insistence on developing its nuclear capability. This is clear since China and Russia had voted against Iran in the Security Council. This will certainly facilitate a "military solution" from which we will all suffer and especially Iran itself."

Are we Americans really understanding the danger and complexity of the situation that Iran seems to be steamrolling to an end?

Posted by The Watcher at Friday, April 27, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

This was just in the news this morning -- The UN is slamming the government in Iraq for not releasing valid civilian casualty reports. We must be considered naive if the press thinks that the Iraqi government is behind the repression of the casualty reports. Who would be most hurt by this news, none other than the Bush administration. This is just one more instance of the puppeteer holding the puppet strings.

As the humanitarian crisis increases in Iraq, Iran just sits back waiting. Loading the trucks of humanitarian aid, waiting for the phone call they know will come, they wait for their opportunity to arrive on the scene as heroes in the world's eyes. Iran is waiting to announce "democracy has failed here, a Muslim government is your only way to gain control of the violence." But they won't mention that millions in Iranian currency has gone to fund the violence to move Iraq to the brink of civil war and to pay for the escalating violence.

Iraq is simply a pawn in the greater scheme of things for Iran's plan to create the Shiite Muslim empire that will eventually, according to their plan, over take the world. Hmm, we'll just have to see about that one.

Posted by The Watcher at Wednesday, April 25, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

The Americans are grasping for straws in the fight to bring calm to Baghdad, Iraq. Now they are splitting up communities with jersey barriers and monitoring who comes and goes from these newly barricaded communities in and effort to stem violence.

It is a failed approach even before it starts. Just look at the Palestinian issue. Did the wall and barriers stop violence in Israel - no, it caused even more polarization and separatism. Did the walled community program work in Viet Nam - no it caused the villagers of the communities to side with the rebels.

Now we have a desperate situation where the resolution is to enact a non-friendly resolution. Not only are walls being erected around ten communities, but residents as being subjected to fingerprint scans, retina scans, and comparison to a rebel database. That should take hours to get through any screening checkpoint.

Clearly there are no simple solutions to the violence, and this final solution is a final desperate measure to try to bring peace to the final remaining residents in Baghdad. Good luck!

Posted by The Watcher at Monday, April 23, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Isn't is always about money? If you read the news, you'll see that Korea says that it wants its frozen assets released and then it will stop its nuclear program. You can read the full article here.

I'm sure that Iran is watching the whole Korea nuclear problem very carefully and crafting its own plan on how to milk millions from their situation too. Not only are the two situations very similar, but the ineffectiveness of the U.N. and the world community is illustrated in both cases.

The nuclear card is being used in both cases to extract millions of dollars and to create an aura of power for both countries. On my part, I see through the smoke and mirrors and see two very dangerous situations by two wild card countries that do not in either case have clear opportunities for peaceful resolution.

Posted by The Watcher at Friday, April 20, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Iraq appears to have made its decision. Unfortunately it's not the decision U.S. leaders wanted Iraqis to make when we freed them from the cruel grasp of a brutal dictator and promised them the freedom of democracy. Having engineered elections and a supposedly democratic government, the Iraqis -- or at least their leaders -- are speaking, but is Washington listening?

Iraq is making choices and they're not choosing the U.S. How can they when Iran is dangling the key to the executive men's room in front of their nose? Like the nerdy accountant who suddenly finds himself sharing cigars in the boss' inner sanctum, Iraq won't be able to resist Iran's invitation to join the Boys' Club. Unfortunately Iraq fails to see the puppet strings that come with the invitation. Iraq is doomed, to become just another squashed dream crushed by the rise of a new Persian Empire.

So what is the U.S. to do? Realistically, nothing. It doesn't matter that we had planned to build Iraq into a bastion of pro-western democratic freedom to hedge our bets and protect our oil supply in the Middle East. As any fool can see, it ain't gonna happen. In today's volatile Middle East, pro-American sentiment is tantamount to lighting the fuse on the bomb in your pocket -- political suicide.

Having given Iraq the tools to make its own choices, the U.S. can only step back and watch as history unfolds. That is the basic tenet of democracy after all -- the freedom to choose one's own destiny.

By recreating Iraq as a democracy with the freedom to make its own choices, the U.S. must now sit back and watch in frustration as Iraq chooses to bite the hand that fed it. To do anything less is to admit that Iraqi democracy was no more than a sham. Time to pass the puppet strings; Iran is waiting in the wings.

Posted by The Watcher at Wednesday, April 18, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

I spoken about this before and here it is again. Only the names of changed now it is Iran and before it was Korea

Based on what is happening with the United Nations, Iran, and North Korea, it is clear that the new world blackmail bargaining chip is the Nuclear Card!

Want a big cash influx into your economy, entry into the European Community, entry into the World Trade Organization, preferential treatment from powerful countries?

All you have to do is to start a nuclear program and you'll get all these and more just to stop. You don't even have to really be planning to create a nuclear weapon, just set up some centrifuges and corral all of your nuclear physicists into one business center, maybe even put up a sign, and the world will be at your doorstep just waiting to pay you to stop your endeavors.

Want more hard cold cash and even more incentives? Then get really serious and actually build some nuclear facilities, but don't spend too much money as to stop you, the world powers will pay you even more and offer to create a whole civilian infrastructure for nuclear power and will even remove your old spent nuclear rods. You can have it all! Money and cheap nuclear power for your country.

Worried about sanctions? Don't be, sanctions smanctions...they won't happen, just look at North Korea and Iran, nothing's happening there. Oh wait, if you have oil in your country, your bargaining power just got bigger. Threaten to turn off the oil to get triple what they offer you the first time.

Yes, this is all tongue in check, but there is some truth to this post as attested to by the statement released by Iran today. "Continue to pursue sanctions and we'll step up our research." If you really believe that one, I have the Brooklyn Bridge for sale this week, it's on special!

Posted by The Watcher at Monday, April 16, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

When I read this in the Washington Post, at first I thought that it was a mistake. The US is reported as stating that Iran is funding the Shiite insurgency (nothing new here), but also funding the Sunni insurgency. Hmm, at first I thought the intelligence has it all wrong, the Shiites rabidly hate the Sunnis and Iran is struggling to establish more Shiite leadership in the region, so how could they possibly team up with Sunnis?

But this makes total sense if you think about it. Funding both sides works into Iran's greater plan of destabilization for the region, which will enable Iranian pro-Islamic government forces to move into a power vacuum. Also funding both sides allows for Iran to accomplish one of their favorite missions - the overt sabotage of American standing and influence in the region.

So it makes perfect sense for Iran to fund both Shiite and Sunni sides. They have found common ground in their hatred for Americans.

Posted by The Watcher at Friday, April 13, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Did you ever doubt it? Iran has it fingerprints all over Iraq. You can read the full article here about how Iran is helping Iraqi insurgents to build roadside bombs created to kill Americans.

Iran has not hidden their attempts to spread their version of Islamic Shiite government into Iraq, in fact Iran has been very proactive in this arena. Not only are the Iranians providing "helpful" bomb advice, but they routinely provide arms, funding for the insurgency, logistics and strategic planning for attacks, and humanitarian aid.

When the American military does move out, the Iranians will very easily move in to fill the power vacuum.

Posted by The Watcher at Wednesday, April 11, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Well, it is simply time to leave Iraq. Read this article from Iraq and Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Americans are simply not welcome anymore.

Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr pretty much says to the Americana "get on out of here, it is time for us to shape our own destiny". I pretty much agree with that. When a country doesn't want you around anymore to stay starts to appear pretty much like a hostile occupation.

As Iraq celebrates its anniversary from the release of Saddam's power, it is time for the Bush government to acknowledge the problems and move on out. Clearly Iraq is ready to chart its own course even though we all know that the course is an Islamic theocracy shaped after the failed attempt in Iran, but just the same, it will be the people's choice whether we like it or not.

Posted by The Watcher at Monday, April 09, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Good grief, when is the Bush administration going to stop beating a dead horse? Do they really believe that we believe that Saddam is really tied to al Qaida? (You can read the full article here, if you want to.)

For me personally, after the Iraq war to remove weapons of mass destruction got debunked, I stopped listening to the rationalizations of the Bush government over why we should be and why we should stay in Iraq. The machinations just seemed false and here it is all over again - Saddam was for sure linked to al Qaida. This has been refuted by intelligence reports and others in the region. When are Bush and Cheney going to let this one go!

Oh, but wait, I am sure that next week, Cheney will announce that our armed forces have finally found the underground bunker where weapons of mass destruction were being built by the Saddam regime. If you believe that one or this one (Saddam linked to al Qaida) I have a really nice bridge in Brooklyn for sale, let me know if you are interested.

Posted by The Watcher at Friday, April 06, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Why is it that the British soldiers have to lie to get out of Iran? Read the full story here. It is typical Iranian propaganda that people are forced under threat of death or litigation, that in this case will clearly lead to a death sentence, to testify on television to legitimize the regime's stance.

It has been verified with satellites and GPS that the British soldiers were in Iraqi waters and yet the Iranians move to justify their actions in taking hostages. It is clear to the world that these televised testimonies are coerced, yet the Iranian's proceed as if the statements legitimize their actions. Can the Iranian people not see through the smoke and mirrors? Are the enemies of the West so set on debasing the efforts in Iraq that they will hang on a apparent effort at propaganda to besmirch the West?

What do you think? You can leave comments to this post by just clicking the comments post below and leave your thought anonymously.

Posted by The Watcher at Wednesday, April 04, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

Just read the comments to this blog from Iranians living in Iran, and you can see the dissatisfaction that they have with their own government. But the common thread in the comment posts are that they are adverse to moving toward change.

One thread that seems common to the posts is that the regime doesn't speak for the people. Another thread is that when the old revolutionary guard dies out, that the real Iran will appear and the people will again take over the government and all will be hunky dory again, returning Iran to it's former brilliance and repartees will return in droves to their homeland, ahh for a happy ending.

It appears that many are simply living in a dreamland on this topic. The old guard will not simply die off, they will propagate a new "old guard" that will replace them in power. These revolutionary heroes will not fade away, nor will they relinquish the banner of power and the money and prestige that goes with it easily. The only way to have these in power relinquish their power is for the average Iranian to speak up and to forcefully move them out. But here is the problem, this supposedly simple act carries with it the death sentence as a dissident in the current Iran. It is a catch 22, want change? but take action and you will not live to see the change happen.

As to the dream that many Iranians have for their country, it simply will not happen unfortunately. You wanted an Islamic democracy, you got it, but now how to change it? To me it seems like Mission Impossible!

Posted by The Watcher at Monday, April 02, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post