FIRE WITH FIRE

Today Iran convicted two Kurdish journalists of crimes against Islam and the state and sentenced them to death. Click here to read the full story.

The two journalists were convicted of moharebeh, Arabic for fighting, according to judiciary spokesman Ali Reza Jamshidi. In Iran the term is used to describe major crimes against Islam and the state. The men's crimes and details about how their sentences will be carried out have not been disclosed. However, the journalists were arrested as activists during the 2005 Kurdish protests in Sanandaj, the capital of Kurdistan, an Iranian province on the Iran-Iraq border.

Despite Tehran's constant pressure on journalists and news media to tow the party line, imprisonment and conviction, much less a death sentence, are rare. Tehran likes to flaunt its tolerance and freedom of speech to the outside world, even if the reality inside its borders is more myth than fact.

Analysts wonder if the incident signals the beginning of a new crackdown against rebellious Kurds inside Iran. The Kurds, whose domain straddles Iran, Iraq and Turkey, have long sought autonomy and national unity. Concerned Turks are massing military units along Turkey's Kurdish border with Iraq. While Turkey says its goal is to prevent Kurdish rebels from slipping across Iraqi borders into Turkey, some analysts believe Turkey is positioning itself to invade Iraq and solve its problem with the Kurds by subjugating them under iron Turkish rule.

Whatever the truth, the killing of Kurdish journalists for nebulous political crimes is sure to fan the flames of Kurdish rebellion.

Labels: Iran, Iran judiciary, Iraq, Islam, journalists, Kurdistan, Kurds, Turkey

Posted by The Watcher at Tuesday, July 31, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

Despite recent talks on the future of Iraq that were dubbed a "success," the US and Iran continue to ratchet up the accusations and charges against each other. Call me naive, but I don't see a "meeting of the minds" happening at the bargaining table any time soon.

Days after the joint talks, the US tightened its squeeze on Iran, escalating financial sanctions against Iranian companies that are suspected of supporting their country's nuclear ambitions. The US has blacklisted or frozen the assets of 15 Iranian companies this year, prohibiting American companies and individuals from doing business with them. Click here to read the full article.

"We believe that there is a real potential that these sanctions will have the effect of changing the government of Iran's mind about the defiant policy it is currently pursuing," said US Treasury undersecretary Stuart Levey.

I doubt it. In the face of stringent United Nations and US economic sanctions, Iran hasn't backed down yet. And few Iranian experts believe the country ever will.

"I don't think if the assets of a few Iranian officials are frozen or if the state of California and the state of New York decide to divest from Iran, suddenly the regime will buckle and say 'we're going to change our nuclear approach'," said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iranian researcher for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Sadjadpour pointed to Cuba's success in weathering even more stringent US sanctions and with a far weaker economy. He suggested only "a more robust international coalition" would make a dent in Iran's stubborn nationalism. With volatile President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at Iran's helm, it's unlikely that even that would change Iran's nuclear policy.

Labels: economy, Iran, nuclear, sanctions, United Nations, US, US-Iran talks

Posted by The Watcher at Saturday, July 28, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

MUSLIMS' SUPPORT OF ATTACKS IS WANING blared the headline in my local newspaper yesterday morning. All I can say is, it's about time! Click here to read the full story.

In Muslim countries support for suicide bombings against civilians has dropped sharply since 2002, according to a 2007 survey conducted by the Pew Global Attitudes Project. Approximately 1,000 citizens in each country were asked if they felt suicide bombings of civilians were justified to defend Islam:

• Countries where support dropped by slightly more than 50%: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Lebanon, Pakistan
• Countries where support dropped by 50%: Jordan
• Countries where support dropped by slightly less than 50%: Tanzania, Nigeria, Turkey

Lebanon experienced the greatest change in attitude. In 2002, 74% of Lebanese citizens felt car bombings and other suicide attacks on civilians were an acceptable way of defending Islam. Today that number has dropped to only 34% .

"Muslim public opinion, as the result of increased suicide bombings, has come to realize the poisonous and murderous nature of this kind of attack," said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of Arab and Muslim politics at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, New York.

Muslims supported the attacks when they were aimed at the US and other foreign nationals, seeing bombers as virtuous Davids taking aim at the far more powerful Goliaths. Suicide bombings were cheered acts of patriotism. But now that they've become victims themselves, now that they've lost sons and daughters, mothers and fathers to suicide bombers, many Muslims view the attacks as the reprehensible violence they are. Imagine that! Violence isn't so virtuous when it blows up in your own face.

Labels: Middle East, suicide bombers, violence

Posted by The Watcher at Thursday, July 26, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

Despite the kindergarten squabbling, talks between American and Iranian ambassadors to Iraq seemed to go well today. Both parties agreed to establish a security subcommittee to discuss restoring stability to Iraq. Iraqi leaders have been pushing for talks between the two countries which exert the greatest influence over Iraq's future.

Iran seemed to be pushing for higher level talks in the future. "The issue of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. about Iraq at the level of deputy foreign ministers is reviewable," said Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack seemed to put the brakes on that idea, however, saying, "I don't see that happening. We have an established channel with [U.S. Ambassador] Ryan Crocker and we are taking a look at establishing a subcommittee, but that group would actually be lower-level officials." Click here to read the full article.

Despite the agreement to continue talks and establish a joint committee, sniping between the two powers continued unabated. The U.S. charged Iran with arming and training Iraqi Shiite militias. Iran demanded that the U.S. release five Iranians detained for just that reason. Iran accused the U.S. of fomenting dissent. The U.S. demanded the release of American-Iranian activists charged with threatening Iran's security. Not exactly a meeting of the minds.

While the talks are supposed to focus on Iraq and not Iran-U.S. tensions, it seems likely that those tensions will derail any peaceful negotiations between the two powers. In the coming weeks and months the diplomats will dance around a host of issues on how best to create a secure Iraq. But it seems that Iran's goal might actually be to create a subjugated Iraq, one they can more easily control.

Labels: foreign policy, Iran, Iraq security, Shiite, US, US-Iran citizens, US-Iran talks

Posted by The Watcher at Tuesday, July 24, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

Iran and the US have scheduled a new round of high-level talks, the first since May. If news headlines are to be believed, instead of peace it looks like a showdown is in the offing. Ambassadors will meet in Baghdad this coming Tuesday, July 24, 2007, but with all the sniping going on a successful outcome doesn't look too promising. Just look at this week's news headlines:

• US, Iran trade barbs ahead of Iraq talks (Associated Press)
• Showing jailed Americans, Iran TV cites confessions (Washington Post)
• Under fire from US, Iran reacts by cracking down at home (Christian Science Monitor)

Hardly looks like cooperative behavior, does it? Looks more like each side is posturing to increase its power at the bargaining table. Both sides appear to be going out of their way to annoy each other. Allegations and complaints on both sides have been escalating all week.

No one would ever accuse Iran and the US of being best buddies, but the current level of dialog doesn't even appear to be coldly courteous. Words like appalled, alarming and outrageous are being used by both parties -- not the conciliatory speech one would expect before a discussion aimed at resolving differences and solving problems.

Under the circumstances, it is hard to believe the sincerity of either party or their ability to compromise. Tuesday's scheduled talks look like another exercise in futility for America and another crafty delaying tactic on the part of Iran.

Labels: foreign policy, Iran, peace talks, US

Posted by The Watcher at Saturday, July 21, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

The nuclear weapons are in place -- inside America -- and ready for detonation. Al-Qaida is planning a devastating nuclear attack on American soil. American authorities fear that weapons and sleeper agents are already in place. American Hiroshima is ready to blow! Read the whole article here.

That's the chilling news gathered from captured al-Qaida leaders and documents. Apparently, London was just a wind up for a much more savage and devastating attack planned for America this summer or fall. American intelligence agencies have learned that al-Qaida Iraq plans to detonate multiple nuclear weapons on our soil sometime soon.

With the help of the MS-13 street gang and other organized crime groups, anywhere from 10 to 40 nuclear weapons have already been smuggled over the Mexican border and into the US. Obtained from the former Soviet Union over the past 10 years, the weapons include suitcase nukes, nuclear mines, artillery shells and even missile warheads. Captured documents indicate al-Qaida plans to assemble its own nuclear weapons using fissile material purchased on the black market. Bombs are being constructed for detonation by cell phone or clock timer.

According to Paul Williams, a former FBI consultant and author of the book The Al Qaeda Connection: International Terrorism, Organized Crime and the Coming Apocalypse, al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden are financing the attack with hundreds of millions of dollars gained from bin Laden's control of Afghanistan's heroin trade.

Targeting America's biggest cities, bin Laden's goal is to kill 4 million Americans, a least 2 million of them children, to avenge America's purported crimes against Muslims. If he is successful, will America's vengance annihilate the Middle East? Is this the beginning of the end?

Labels: Afghanistan, arms traffic, bomb, heroin, nuclear, organized crime, Osama bin Laden, terrorists

Posted by The Watcher at Thursday, July 19, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

The US intelligence community says al-Qaida has rebuilt its operating capability to pre-9/11 strength. It would seem that two wars and an international manhunt targeting its leadership have come to naught. Despite the capture or death of many top lieutenants, annihilation of training camps, derailing of known funding operations, and the interrogation and incarceration of thousands of suspected sympathizers worldwide, in just six years the shadowy group has managed to rebuild its leadership, manpower, training program, resources, communications network and operations -- all contributing to an attack capability that is at minimum equal to that of 9/11 and most probably greater. Click here to read the whole story.

The recently aborted attacks in the United Kingdom are a sample of al-Qaida's present capability to coordinate chaos in the West, warn U.S. intelligence agencies. Al-Qaida's strength has grown tremendously, particularly in the past two years, and along with it, the terrorist group's capacity to carry out another devastating terrorist attack on American soil, say intelligence sources.

A new terrorist assessment singles out Pakistan for harboring al-Qaida operatives and operations along its border with Afghanistan and as a likely conduit enabling terrorists to enter other countries. Among those countries whose ties to Pakistan may put them at greater risk are Britain, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands.

Al-Qaida's efforts to step up operations have been particularly successful since Pakistan signed a peace agreement with tribal leaders along its northwestern border with Afghanistan, effectively removing any military presence. The area has become a recognized safe haven for Taliban and al-Qaida operatives.

President Bush is using the intelligence report to bolster his argument for a troop build up. Certainly Americans are more wary of a 9/11-like terrorist threat since the the recent incidents in the United Kingdom.

Labels: Afghanistan, al-Qaida, Iraq

Posted by The Watcher at Tuesday, July 17, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

Are educated Iranians finally getting fed up with President Ahmadinejad's inflammatory, emotional rhetoric and near total avoidance of fact? In an unprecedented move, more than 50 Iranian economists met with the president to tell him his economic policies are "inexpert" and lacked "any basis in science." Read the full story here.

Condemning the president's economic policies, the economists told Ahmadinejad,
"In your government, economic policies are adopted without any basis in science
or the directives of the fourth development plan."

Iran's leading economists and financial leaders bluntly criticized Ahmadinejad for mismanaging Iran's oil wealth and failing to reign in the rampant inflation that has proved devastating to Iran's poor. In 2005 Ahmadinejad was elected largely on the strength of his promise to spread Iran's oil wealth to the country's poor, but it is the poor who have been most hurt by his capricious economic policies. In OPEC's second largest oil producer the rate of inflation is expected to rise to 17% by next March. The price of basic foods and services has risen sharply over the past few months.

With money supply growth running at a whopping 40%, economists charged that Ahmadinejad is emptying Iran's coffers without regard for the needs of future generations. Fulfilling rashly made campaign promises, the president is using Iran's wealth to fund a flood of infrastructure projects in the country's 30 provinces.

Seen as particularly dangerous by the country's economists was Ahmadinejad's decision made earlier this year to lower interest rates. Financial leaders lambasted the president for failing to consult either the central bank chief or economy minister.

"Such decisions are harmful and inexpert. The most sensitive financial institutions of the country will be weakened and in the not too distant future we will see the negative outcomes of these decisions," the economists said.

In past encounters, President Ahmadinejad has vehemently rejected criticism of his economic policies, denying charges that inflation is out of control and pointing to his pet building projects as evidence of Iran's technological progress. It will be interesting to see if the combined weight of the country's top economists and financial leaders can reign in the president or whether he will continue to plunder Iran's wealth for his own political gain.

Labels: banks, dissidents, economy, inflation, infrastructure, Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Posted by The Watcher at Saturday, July 14, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

"The leader of an al-Qaida umbrella group in Iraq threatened to wage war against Iran unless it stops supporting Shiites in Iraq within two months, according to an audiotape released Sunday," the Associated Press reported earlier this week. Click here to read the whole article.

In a bizarre 50-minute audiotape posted on a terrorist website, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, leader of the Sunni splinter group Islamic State in Iraq, threatened to launch an attack against Shiite-dominated Iran saying, "We are giving the Persians, and especially the rulers of Iran, a two month period to end all kinds of support for the Iraqi Shiite government and to stop direct and indirect intervention ... otherwise a severe war is waiting for you."

Sunnis and Arab countries doing business with Iran were also given a two month warning to cease and desist. "We advise and warn every Sunni businessman inside Iran or in Arab countries especially in the Gulf not to take partnership with any Shiite Iranian businessman -- this is part of the two-month period," al-Baghdadi said. Kurds were also condemned for supporting Iraq's Shiite government.

In my opinion, this ridiculous farce underscores the impossibility of ever finding a common ground in which Iraqis could live in peace. There will never be respect or acceptance between Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds. While, as a Westerner, I fail to comprehend the importance of what seems to me to be minute differences in religious and political philosophy and the fanatical fervor with which centuries old slights dictate current behavior in the Middle East, it is clear to me that no side in this unlikely threesome is willing to compromise.

In all the chaos and highly charged emotion rampant in Iraq, it is only a matter of time before a loose cannon like al-Baghdadi sets off the bomb that breaks the camel's back and ends any semblance of political cooperation in that part of the world. As the rage of Iran or Turkey scream down upon Iraq, devouring its borders, peace may finally come to this divided country. But it will be the iron-fisted "peace" of a new Saddam.

Labels: invade Iran, Islamic State of Iraq, Kurd, Shiite, Sunni, Turkey

Posted by The Watcher at Thursday, July 12, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

• President Bush keeps saying we just need to give his plan more time to work in Iraq.
• The US military says Iraqis are not stepping up to the plate. Increasingly US troops are fighting alone. Allah alone knows where their Iraqi counterparts are hiding.
• Increasingly, Iraqis are turning on themselves. Suicide bombers recently killed 115 Iraqi citizens while they were doing their daily shopping. These weren't political or military targets; just plain old folks trying to survive.
• This week Iraqi politicians called upon Iraqi citizens to arm themselves for their own protection.

I can't believe he hasn't noticed, but unless hell freezes over soon, President Bush's plan doesn't have a prayer of working. The military knows it's not working. Iraqi terrorist and extremists are doing their best to keep it from working. Iraqi citizens have given up. And now Iraqi politicians have thrown in the towel. Even the protesters who gather in front of my local Starbucks every Saturday know Bush's plan is bunk. They still carry signs that say Honk if you support our troops, but the pro-Bush contingent has stopped coming. Only the Down with Bush group still rallies.

Is our president deaf, blind and dumb that he can't see what the rest of the world so clearly sees? Nothing the US does seems to be working in Iraq. Our frustrated military secures one section of the country and the terrorists and extremists pop up somewhere else. Iraq is split in its own thinly veiled civil war, the power struggle between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds rending the country. The Iraqi military is afraid to fight neighbor against neighbor for fear of retaliation. Iraqi clerics preach hate in the name of Allah while solidifying their power. Iraqi politicians have proved a spineless bunch who would rather feather their own nests than help their countrymen. American citizens (and those of our allies) are fed up and want out NOW.

Perhaps there is too great a cultural divide between Iraq and the US. Perhaps after years of servitude to tribal elders and fanatical clerics, then to a megalomaniac dictator, democracy is a too difficult a concept for Iraqis to grasp. Perhaps Iraqis can only put their differences aside and pull together under the heel of a strong leader. If that's true, the solution to Iraq's problems lies poised on her borders. Iran and Turkey wait there, eager to fill Saddam's shoes.

Labels: foreign policy, Iraq, military, President Bush, suicide bombers, terrorists, war protestors

Posted by The Watcher at Tuesday, July 10, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

The US has been waiting to see whether there would be a change in British foreign policy toward Iran with Tony Blair out of the picture. It appears that there won't be a change in policy, but it remains to be seen whether the UK will put any muscle behind its words. The US breathed a sigh of relief this week when the new British Prime Minister, David Miliband, pressed for tighter UN sanctions against Iran if it refused to suspend uranium enrichment.

In an interesting development, Miliband did not rule out military action against Iran. However, from his statements it's hard to tell exactly what Miliband might do. He teeters on a precarious precipice that has already sent the once popular Blair to his political death. UK citizens may support the idea of stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions, but they are vehemently opposed to sending British soldiers into the fray. Perhaps still feeling his way politically, in an interview with London's Financial Times Miliband qualified every hard core statement with a softer statement recognizing Iran's rights. Click here to read the whole article.

Iran "doesn't have the right to set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East," Miliband said in the interview. However, he added, Iran "has every right to be a secure rich country."

While Miliband refused to repeat the guarantee made by predecessor Jack Straw that military action against Iran was "inconceivable," he did say, "I think the whole of the international community wants a non-military, diplomatic solution to this problem."

It's hard to know if Miliband is hedging his bets while he solidifies his political authority, or if he'll stand by his tough talk and is just throwing a sop to popular opinion. Time will tell.

Labels: David Miliband, foreign policy, sanctions, Tony Blair, UK, United Nations

Posted by The Watcher at Saturday, July 07, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

I think things have reached an absurd point in Iraq. I read in the Los Angeles Times today that according to recently obtained State and Defense Department figures:

"The number of U.S.-paid private contractors in Iraq now exceeds that of American combat troops ... More than 180,000 civilians -- including Americans, foreigners and Iraqis -- are working in Iraq under U.S. contracts ... Including the recent troop surge, 160,000 soldiers and a few thousand civilian government employees are stationed in Iraq." Click here to read the whole story.

That is absolutely ridiculous. We are supporting the equivalent of two armies in Iraq! The problem is that we aren't supporting as many of the guys with the guns as we are the guys with the shovels. What kind of twisted logic is that? And you can bet the guys with the shovels are better equipped and better paid than the guys with the guns who are protecting them.

I think it's time we cut our loses. Instead of taking more civilian soldiers away from their families and communities, we should give the contractors guns and tanks, turn the whole mess over to Haliburton, and let them all fend for themselves. Perhaps the wily greed of American capitalism will succeed where military might has failed!

Labels: contractors, Iraq, troops

Posted by The Watcher at Thursday, July 05, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post   

Accusing Iran of raging a proxy war through Shiite extremists, the US military this week said Iran's leadership had a direct role in a sophisticated attack that killed five US troops in Iraq in January. Click here to read the full story.

In its most damning and specific condemnation of Iran's involvement in Iraq to date, the US statement marked a sharp escalation in US accusations that Iran is financing, arming and training Iraqi militants. It is the first time Iran has been directly linked to Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah militia, the region's must disciplined and powerful militant group.

Brigadier General Kevin Bergner accused Iran's elite Republican Guards, the Quds Force, of bringing in Hezbollah operatives to train and organize a similar militia in Iraq. Its purpose is to further destabilize US forces and the fledgling US-supported Iraqi government. "Our intelligence reveals that the senior leadership in Iran is aware of this activity," Bergner said.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini unilaterally dismissed the US charges, saying, "American leaders have gotten into the habit of issuing ridiculous and false statement without providing evidence, with political and psychological aims."

Bergner said US forces have incontrovertible proof that the Quds Force is providing up to $3 million a month to Iraqi militants and training them in three camps outside Tehran. The future terrorists are being trained to carry out bombings, raids and kidnappings. Evidence that Quds Force operatives are active in Iraq has been discovered during military raids and arrests since February.

Posted by The Watcher at Tuesday, July 03, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post