Thursday, August 02, 2007

Iraq Unraveling from Within

Is US intelligence a joke or are Bush and his cronies really that obtuse? Two headlines caught my eye this week:

Sunnis Quit Cabinet
Gates: U.S. Underestimated Iraqi Political Rift

Only an idiot -- or apparently, the US government -- didn't see this coming! The Sunni-Shiite (and to a lesser degree, Kurd) split has long been at the root of Iraq's inability to form a viable government. Only by viciously suppressing one faction in favor of another has the country ever been able to function as a political unit. Only with Saddam's iron fist pummelling the Shiites and Kurds into submission were the minority Sunnis able to control the country.

In its arrogance and naivete, the Bush gang apparently believed that once Saddam was removed, the Iraqi people would rise up as one, embrace democracy and lead a new wave of western-styled freedom through the Middle East. However, with no single strongman rising from their interminable internal squabbling and no history of cooperative government, the Shiites have been unable to form, much less maintain, even the marginal semblance of a national government.

"In some ways, we probably all underestimated the depth of mistrust and how difficult it would be for these guys to come together on legislation," US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said this week.

What an understatement! Has nobody in the Bush administration ever opened a history book? You don't change centuries of cultural behavior by dangling a foreign carrot in front of a stubborn mule. And American politicians are so culturally obtuse, they never thought to find out if the donkey likes carrots!

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Posted by The Watcher at Thursday, August 02, 2007 | | Comments | links to this post

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Iran-US Talks Proceed Despite Squabbling

Despite the kindergarten squabbling, talks between American and Iranian ambassadors to Iraq seemed to go well today. Both parties agreed to establish a security subcommittee to discuss restoring stability to Iraq. Iraqi leaders have been pushing for talks between the two countries which exert the greatest influence over Iraq's future.

Iran seemed to be pushing for higher level talks in the future. "The issue of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. about Iraq at the level of deputy foreign ministers is reviewable," said Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack seemed to put the brakes on that idea, however, saying, "I don't see that happening. We have an established channel with [U.S. Ambassador] Ryan Crocker and we are taking a look at establishing a subcommittee, but that group would actually be lower-level officials." Click here to read the full article.

Despite the agreement to continue talks and establish a joint committee, sniping between the two powers continued unabated. The U.S. charged Iran with arming and training Iraqi Shiite militias. Iran demanded that the U.S. release five Iranians detained for just that reason. Iran accused the U.S. of fomenting dissent. The U.S. demanded the release of American-Iranian activists charged with threatening Iran's security. Not exactly a meeting of the minds.

While the talks are supposed to focus on Iraq and not Iran-U.S. tensions, it seems likely that those tensions will derail any peaceful negotiations between the two powers. In the coming weeks and months the diplomats will dance around a host of issues on how best to create a secure Iraq. But it seems that Iran's goal might actually be to create a subjugated Iraq, one they can more easily control.

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Posted by The Watcher at Tuesday, July 24, 2007 | | Comments | links to this post

Thursday, July 12, 2007

In Bizarre Twist Sunni Splinter Group Threatens Iran With War

"The leader of an al-Qaida umbrella group in Iraq threatened to wage war against Iran unless it stops supporting Shiites in Iraq within two months, according to an audiotape released Sunday," the Associated Press reported earlier this week. Click here to read the whole article.

In a bizarre 50-minute audiotape posted on a terrorist website, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, leader of the Sunni splinter group Islamic State in Iraq, threatened to launch an attack against Shiite-dominated Iran saying, "We are giving the Persians, and especially the rulers of Iran, a two month period to end all kinds of support for the Iraqi Shiite government and to stop direct and indirect intervention ... otherwise a severe war is waiting for you."

Sunnis and Arab countries doing business with Iran were also given a two month warning to cease and desist. "We advise and warn every Sunni businessman inside Iran or in Arab countries especially in the Gulf not to take partnership with any Shiite Iranian businessman -- this is part of the two-month period," al-Baghdadi said. Kurds were also condemned for supporting Iraq's Shiite government.

In my opinion, this ridiculous farce underscores the impossibility of ever finding a common ground in which Iraqis could live in peace. There will never be respect or acceptance between Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds. While, as a Westerner, I fail to comprehend the importance of what seems to me to be minute differences in religious and political philosophy and the fanatical fervor with which centuries old slights dictate current behavior in the Middle East, it is clear to me that no side in this unlikely threesome is willing to compromise.

In all the chaos and highly charged emotion rampant in Iraq, it is only a matter of time before a loose cannon like al-Baghdadi sets off the bomb that breaks the camel's back and ends any semblance of political cooperation in that part of the world. As the rage of Iran or Turkey scream down upon Iraq, devouring its borders, peace may finally come to this divided country. But it will be the iron-fisted "peace" of a new Saddam.

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Posted by The Watcher at Thursday, July 12, 2007 | | Comments | links to this post