Friday, August 24, 2007

Bush's Attack on Guards Backs Iran into Corner

By designating Iran's Revolutionary Guards as terrorists, the Bush administration may be creating a monster instead of beheading one.

Formed by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Revolutionary Guards function as a national army numbering about 125,000. The Guards are a tightly organized, well-trained, well-armed, well-equipped state military unit. We're not talking about shadows in the night like al-Qaida, Hamas or Hezbollah, other designated terrorists. This is tantamount to putting the US Rangers on a terrorist list. It's the first time the army of a sovereign nation has been called a terrorist by the US.

Because the Guards own and control many of the front companies involved in Iran's nuclear efforts, Bush may be trying to go in the back door. Attacking the Guards may be another way of putting pressure on Iran's nuclear ambitions, said Middle East analyst Georgie Anne Geyer in a recent column. (Geyer writes for United Press Syndicate.) Read Geyer's column here.

But Bush may be putting too much pressure on Iran. "All of us want to back Iran into a corner," said nuclear proliferation expert Joseph Cirincione, "but we want to give them a way out, too." The terrorist designation "will convince many in Iran's elite that there's no point in talking with us and that the only thing that will satisfy us is a regime change."
From recent remarks he has made, it seems that Bush is trying to foment rebellion in Iran. During a recent news conference he said, "My message to the Iranian people is, you can do better than this current government. You don't have to be isolated. You don't have to be in a position where you can't realize your full economic potential."

Bush's attacks on Iran are bound to backfire. Rather than driving apart traditional and liberal elements as he hopes, his efforts will only bind these adversaries in a nationalist movement to protect their country from the US foreign devil.

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Posted by The Watcher at Friday, August 24, 2007 | | Comments | links to this post

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Karzai, Bush Face Off Over Iran

During their recent Camp David summit, US President Bush and Afghan President Hamid Karzai seemed in tune about everything except Iran's future role in Afghanistan. Their vastly different opinions about Iran struck a glaringly discordant note that may disrupt future harmony between the two nations.

Karzai characterized Afghanistan's powerful neighbor as "a helper and a solution."

Bush disagreed, saying, "I would be very cautious about whether the Iranian influence in Afghanistan is a positive force."

Bush and the US believe Iran to be a destabilizing force in the Middle East, bent on achieving its own expansionist goals to reestablish a Persian empire. Barely a week after the summit, US military commanders in Iraq accused Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps of operating in that war-torn country. While no member of the elite Iranian military unit had been captured, weapons caches bearing Iranian markings were found during a military sweep south of Baghdad. US commanders cited "military intelligence" in naming the Guard Corps as the source of the weapons.

Bush and US military leaders have repeatedly accused Iran of supplying weapons to Iraqi insurgents loyal to anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Several times Iranian-marked weapons have been discovered during US clashes with al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. The US has also accused Iran of actively supporting Shiite attacks against Sunnis in Iraq. The only Shiite Muslim state in the Middle East, Iran has made no secret of its support for development of a Shiite-controlled state in Iraq.

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Posted by The Watcher at Saturday, August 18, 2007 | | Comments | links to this post

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Iran Warns Off U.S.

Iran is flexing its biceps. Joining with the leaders of Russia and China, Tehran warned the US that interference in central Asia would not be tolerated. The three Asian powerhouses issued a statement that central Asia should be left alone to manage its own affairs:

"Stability and security in central Asia are best ensured primarily through efforts taken by the nations of the region on the basis of the existing regional associations."


Issued at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the thinly veiled threat appeared to be directed at the US. Although he did not specifically name the US, Russian President Vladimir Puttin took an oblique swing at American involvement in Iraq, saying "any attempts to solve global and regional problems unilaterally are hopeless."

The stability of strategic, resource-rich central Asia has been of concern in western quarters. Iran has increasingly aligned itself with Russia and China against the US. Is Iran lining up allies before it makes its own play on Iraq?

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Posted by The Watcher at Thursday, August 16, 2007 | | Comments | links to this post

Saturday, August 11, 2007

Iran Demands US Pullout of Iraq

The accusations are flying hot and heavy between the US and Iran. Yesterday President Bush warned Iran to stop meddling in Iraq. Today Iran told Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that only a US pullout will stabilize Iraq.

Patting the poor boy on the head, Iran assured the Iraqi PM that big brother Iran will take care of him and is doing everything possible to bring peace to his war-torn country. If that bully President Bush and his nasty US military gang will just get out and go home, everything will be fine.

What a nice family picture. Makes your heart soar to see such love between brothers. It's time President Bush realizes that you can't buy love. Iraq will never be grateful for the millions of dollars and thousands of lives the US has invested in Iraq. We forced our way in uninvited and plunged their country into chaos (a view shared by many Americans). We will always be the bully, the outsider. We will never be part of the family. Americans, our culture, our view of the world are just too different. Iraq will never see the monster slithering slowly through its sands, quietly wrapping its tentacles around every aspect of Iraqi life until the day it snuffs that life out.

Iran is familiar, the Shiite big brother who would never harm his smaller sibling. The US will always be the hated foreign interloper, the infidel. Arabs are notorious for failing to learn from the lessons of history. Iraq will find that the price is high.

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Posted by The Watcher at Saturday, August 11, 2007 | | Comments | links to this post

Saturday, August 04, 2007

Snapshot of an American Muslim

An estimated 2.35 million Muslims call the United States home. While 65% are foreign-born, they are "decidedly American in their outlook," according to the latest report by the Pew Research Center as quoted in the July 30, 2007 issue of Newsweek. Click here to read the entire article.

Here's a snapshot of the average Muslim in America:

54% are male
56% are age 18-39
47% have at least some college education
35% earn less than $30,000
50% are Sunni
56% are moderately committed to their faith

While 63% of Americans do not believe that US Muslims condone violence, 52% think the FBI should be allowed to wiretap mosques. And 52% also felt that Muslims living in foreign countries are more violent than those living in America.

Generally, older Americans were more suspicious of Muslims and younger generations more tolerant. When asked whether they thought the US allows too many immigrants from Muslim countries, those responding "yes" were as follows:

58% age 60+
49% age 40-59
32% age 18-39

Many US Muslims were born here, others immigrated to the US, but all have the same hopes for their children and are pursuing the same dreams as their neighbors. It is the feeling of suspicion they feel as they walk down the street and go about their daily business that separates them from their fellow countrymen.

One American Muslim raising his family in Ohio said he thinks anti-Muslim sentiment is growing worse in the US. "I'm not so much worried about myself," he told Newsweek. "It's the young people I'm concerned with. Those are the people we need to try -- not only as Muslims but as Americans -- to make them feel part of America. If you alienate the Muslim young people from America, that is dangerous."

Alienation is often the first step toward violence, as we have seen at Columbine and Virginia Tech. By alienating Muslim youth in America we push them into the outstretched arms of extremists offering them acceptance while fanning their alienation into hatred.

America has always been a melting pot of cultures, people and ideas. Muslims are one of several newer groups adding to the spice and richness of our society. Throughout our nation's history we have at first feared and then embraced the new and different. Perhaps the best way to distill the threat of radical Islam in America is by embracing and welcoming our Muslim citizens.

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Posted by The Watcher at Saturday, August 04, 2007 | | Comments | links to this post

Saturday, July 28, 2007

US Steps Up Economic Pressure Against Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

Despite recent talks on the future of Iraq that were dubbed a "success," the US and Iran continue to ratchet up the accusations and charges against each other. Call me naive, but I don't see a "meeting of the minds" happening at the bargaining table any time soon.

Days after the joint talks, the US tightened its squeeze on Iran, escalating financial sanctions against Iranian companies that are suspected of supporting their country's nuclear ambitions. The US has blacklisted or frozen the assets of 15 Iranian companies this year, prohibiting American companies and individuals from doing business with them. Click here to read the full article.

"We believe that there is a real potential that these sanctions will have the effect of changing the government of Iran's mind about the defiant policy it is currently pursuing," said US Treasury undersecretary Stuart Levey.

I doubt it. In the face of stringent United Nations and US economic sanctions, Iran hasn't backed down yet. And few Iranian experts believe the country ever will.

"I don't think if the assets of a few Iranian officials are frozen or if the state of California and the state of New York decide to divest from Iran, suddenly the regime will buckle and say 'we're going to change our nuclear approach'," said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iranian researcher for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Sadjadpour pointed to Cuba's success in weathering even more stringent US sanctions and with a far weaker economy. He suggested only "a more robust international coalition" would make a dent in Iran's stubborn nationalism. With volatile President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at Iran's helm, it's unlikely that even that would change Iran's nuclear policy.

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Posted by The Watcher at Saturday, July 28, 2007 | | Comments | links to this post

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Iran-US Talks Proceed Despite Squabbling

Despite the kindergarten squabbling, talks between American and Iranian ambassadors to Iraq seemed to go well today. Both parties agreed to establish a security subcommittee to discuss restoring stability to Iraq. Iraqi leaders have been pushing for talks between the two countries which exert the greatest influence over Iraq's future.

Iran seemed to be pushing for higher level talks in the future. "The issue of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. about Iraq at the level of deputy foreign ministers is reviewable," said Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack seemed to put the brakes on that idea, however, saying, "I don't see that happening. We have an established channel with [U.S. Ambassador] Ryan Crocker and we are taking a look at establishing a subcommittee, but that group would actually be lower-level officials." Click here to read the full article.

Despite the agreement to continue talks and establish a joint committee, sniping between the two powers continued unabated. The U.S. charged Iran with arming and training Iraqi Shiite militias. Iran demanded that the U.S. release five Iranians detained for just that reason. Iran accused the U.S. of fomenting dissent. The U.S. demanded the release of American-Iranian activists charged with threatening Iran's security. Not exactly a meeting of the minds.

While the talks are supposed to focus on Iraq and not Iran-U.S. tensions, it seems likely that those tensions will derail any peaceful negotiations between the two powers. In the coming weeks and months the diplomats will dance around a host of issues on how best to create a secure Iraq. But it seems that Iran's goal might actually be to create a subjugated Iraq, one they can more easily control.

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Posted by The Watcher at Tuesday, July 24, 2007 | | Comments | links to this post

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Preparations for a Showdown?

Iran and the US have scheduled a new round of high-level talks, the first since May. If news headlines are to be believed, instead of peace it looks like a showdown is in the offing. Ambassadors will meet in Baghdad this coming Tuesday, July 24, 2007, but with all the sniping going on a successful outcome doesn't look too promising. Just look at this week's news headlines:

Hardly looks like cooperative behavior, does it? Looks more like each side is posturing to increase its power at the bargaining table. Both sides appear to be going out of their way to annoy each other. Allegations and complaints on both sides have been escalating all week.

No one would ever accuse Iran and the US of being best buddies, but the current level of dialog doesn't even appear to be coldly courteous. Words like appalled, alarming and outrageous are being used by both parties -- not the conciliatory speech one would expect before a discussion aimed at resolving differences and solving problems.

Under the circumstances, it is hard to believe the sincerity of either party or their ability to compromise. Tuesday's scheduled talks look like another exercise in futility for America and another crafty delaying tactic on the part of Iran.

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Posted by The Watcher at Saturday, July 21, 2007 | | Comments | links to this post