FIRE WITH FIRE

Despite recent talks on the future of Iraq that were dubbed a "success," the US and Iran continue to ratchet up the accusations and charges against each other. Call me naive, but I don't see a "meeting of the minds" happening at the bargaining table any time soon.

Days after the joint talks, the US tightened its squeeze on Iran, escalating financial sanctions against Iranian companies that are suspected of supporting their country's nuclear ambitions. The US has blacklisted or frozen the assets of 15 Iranian companies this year, prohibiting American companies and individuals from doing business with them. Click here to read the full article.

"We believe that there is a real potential that these sanctions will have the effect of changing the government of Iran's mind about the defiant policy it is currently pursuing," said US Treasury undersecretary Stuart Levey.

I doubt it. In the face of stringent United Nations and US economic sanctions, Iran hasn't backed down yet. And few Iranian experts believe the country ever will.

"I don't think if the assets of a few Iranian officials are frozen or if the state of California and the state of New York decide to divest from Iran, suddenly the regime will buckle and say 'we're going to change our nuclear approach'," said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iranian researcher for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Sadjadpour pointed to Cuba's success in weathering even more stringent US sanctions and with a far weaker economy. He suggested only "a more robust international coalition" would make a dent in Iran's stubborn nationalism. With volatile President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at Iran's helm, it's unlikely that even that would change Iran's nuclear policy.

Labels: economy, Iran, nuclear, sanctions, United Nations, US, US-Iran talks

Posted by The Watcher at Saturday, July 28, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

The US has been waiting to see whether there would be a change in British foreign policy toward Iran with Tony Blair out of the picture. It appears that there won't be a change in policy, but it remains to be seen whether the UK will put any muscle behind its words. The US breathed a sigh of relief this week when the new British Prime Minister, David Miliband, pressed for tighter UN sanctions against Iran if it refused to suspend uranium enrichment.

In an interesting development, Miliband did not rule out military action against Iran. However, from his statements it's hard to tell exactly what Miliband might do. He teeters on a precarious precipice that has already sent the once popular Blair to his political death. UK citizens may support the idea of stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions, but they are vehemently opposed to sending British soldiers into the fray. Perhaps still feeling his way politically, in an interview with London's Financial Times Miliband qualified every hard core statement with a softer statement recognizing Iran's rights. Click here to read the whole article.

Iran "doesn't have the right to set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East," Miliband said in the interview. However, he added, Iran "has every right to be a secure rich country."

While Miliband refused to repeat the guarantee made by predecessor Jack Straw that military action against Iran was "inconceivable," he did say, "I think the whole of the international community wants a non-military, diplomatic solution to this problem."

It's hard to know if Miliband is hedging his bets while he solidifies his political authority, or if he'll stand by his tough talk and is just throwing a sop to popular opinion. Time will tell.

Labels: David Miliband, foreign policy, sanctions, Tony Blair, UK, United Nations

Posted by The Watcher at Saturday, July 07, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post

The US Congress is a step closer to passing legislation that would punish foreign energy companies that do business with Iran. The House's foreign affairs panel passed the proposed law 37:1 with representatives on both sides of the aisle accusing Iran of trading energy for terror. Click here to read the full story.

"Foreign investment in Iran equals money for terrorism and attacks on Americans," said Democrat Gary Ackerman. "Investment in Iran's petroleum sector enables that country to pursue nuclear weapons, to arm insurgents fighting American troops, and to underwrite Hezbollah and Hamas."

Since the 1979 Islamic revolution, both the US and UN have imposed economic sanctions against Iran with little effect. The US Congress is changing tactics, threatening to impose penalties against countries that ignore those sanctions and choose to trade with Iran for their own economic benefit.

"Pressuring companies to cut their financial ties with Iran is critical to ensuring that sanctions have their intended result," said Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama.

Many European and Japanese companies have profited from lucrative oil and natural gas contracts with Iran. By bolstering Iran's economy despite international censure, they have negated the sting of levied sanctions. Perhaps if they have to pay a price themselves, they will be more willing to forgo personal profit for the international good.

Labels: foreign policy, Iran, nuclear, sanctions, United Nations

Posted by The Watcher at Thursday, June 28, 2007 | Permalink | Comments | links to this post